Predicting … Simply Deduction!
|Adrien Bossel – Frederik Nielsen|
Therefore, they have decided to put their odds as follows:
I’m sorry if the image looks very small but as you can see … we get the information of each of the players with their real odds managed by the bookmaker.
However, we put an interesting fact that says: Adrien Bossel has a 53.1% chance of winning …
The first data we have is that this game of tennis can be fought and that Adrien Bossel has the highest odds of winning
Understanding current statistics on the event
The first … is to see what has been the performance of both players during their last matches, if possible in the same event, watching the last 10 matches would be good to give us a globalized idea.
For example we will look for Adrien Bossel and Frederik Nielsen separately:
In this case we see that in the last tournament Bossel won his first 3 games and the 4th lost him, however he faced players who are considered “Good and who probably would have won his opponent today.
Therefore, having reviewed all this information gives us 1 point in favor of Bossel.
Oh surprise, we see these players have never faced before, however we can see that Bossel is much younger than Nielsen, and if we look closely the difference of ATP ranking is not much to say …
But here does not end everything … however, we already have many points in favor for the favorite Adrien Bossel.
But let’s continue with our analysis to make sure the prediction is a success.
How do the bookmakers move the odds and why do they do it?
Surely already for this point the bookmaker hates me too much for being part of the 3% who does his job to leave it on the broken bench
However I will use my second tool of the 2 best tools to make money betting that I always use … that will help me deduce and check if it is true that Bossel can win the match.
As we can see, these are the odds that the house of betting moves during the day, however it is still about 9 hours before the game starts …
Anyway already by this moment you can check who is the winner
In the image, you see the shadow Red is the public and the solid red line is the probability
In this case there are 2 reasons why the bookmaker has reduced the price on the probability to win for Nielsen, do not get confused …
The first is because these investors are ambitious and they want to make you believe that Nielsen is a super favorite that has the highest probability of winning.
The second is that the moment they lower the price you still believe that you are a super favorite, because you have seen the statistics, certainly this gives them an advantage because they would also be making more money at less risk, if I explain?
Look the line has moved 11 or 12 points from where I started, this for me is considered a strong investment.
In this case they know that Bossel is going to win and they have lowered 10 points to make you confuse and risk even less and they win more …
If you look at the creek that was, where the public declined, we see that they have made a move even lower, to attract more people to their selection.
I hope you enjoyed this case study is still about 8 hours to start the game.
Let’s see what happens …
Until the next case study.
Any questions, doubts or suggestions that you have please let me know in the comments of this article, I would help you to solve your concern.